Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 1471 · SEA → MIA

departs 8:45 PM PT · arrives 5:37 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1471 · SEA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?