Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1485 LANDED 8:50 AM ET, ~21 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 1485 · ROC → CLT

took off 7:22 AM ET · landed 8:50 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1485 · ROC → CLT

Odds over time