AA 148 · SFO → JFK

departs 2:45 PM PT · arrives 11:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 148 · SFO → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?