Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 148 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 148 · SFO → JFK

departs 2:45 PM PT · arrives 11:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 148 · SFO → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?