Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1504 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 1504 · DFW → LAX

took off 6:07 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:31 PM CT → 5:48 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1504 · DFW → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?