Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1821 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1821 · SDQ → MIA

departs 8:03 PM AST · arrives 9:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SDQ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1821 · SDQ → MIA

Odds over time