Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1822 LANDED 11:18 AM PT, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1822 · DFW → SBA

took off 10:26 AM CT · landed 11:18 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

SBA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1822 · DFW → SBA

Odds over time