AA 1842 · SFO → MIA

departs 10:44 PM PT · arrives 7:37 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +28 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
42%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1842 · SFO → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?