Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1864 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 1864 · PHL → FLL

departs 7:20 PM ET · arrives 10:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1864 · PHL → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?