AA 1920 · ORD → SNA

took off 8:27 AM CT · landed 10:23 AM PT (scheduled 8:12 AM CT → 10:48 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1920 · ORD → SNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SNA?