AA 1972 · TPA → DCA

took off 11:52 AM ET · landed 1:54 PM ET (scheduled 11:49 AM ET → 2:28 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.69 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1972 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?