AA 1982 · TPA → CLT

took off 4:57 PM ET · landed 6:13 PM ET (scheduled 4:17 PM ET → 6:04 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to CLT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

CLT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1982 · TPA → CLT

Odds over time

How late did it get to CLT?