Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2004SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today
AA 2004 · PHX → LAS
departs 7:45 AM MT · arrives 8:57 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
24%chance · ±3 pts+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREHigh. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.