Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2004SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AA 2004 · PHX → LAS
departs 7:45 AM MT · arrives 8:57 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
17%chance · ±1 pts+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.