AA 2172 · MIA → LGA

took off 4:37 PM ET · landed 7:05 PM ET (scheduled 4:23 PM ET → 7:24 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2172 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?