AA 2200 · ORF → CLT

departs 3:35 PM ET · arrives 4:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from ORF are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2200 · ORF → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?