Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2385 LANDED 9:03 AM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 2385 · TPA → DCA

took off 7:00 AM ET · landed 9:03 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2385 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time