Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2458 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 2458 · MIA → LAX

departs 10:14 PM ET · arrives 12:27 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 10pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.17 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2458 · MIA → LAX

Odds over time