Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2472 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

AA 2472 · ORD → MSP

took off 6:54 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:04 PM CT → 6:02 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at MSP that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

MSP (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2472 · ORD → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?