Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2495 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 2495 · SAT → PHX

departs 3:46 PM CT · arrives 4:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ 3pm departures from SAT are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2495 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?