Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2495 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 2495 · SAT → PHX

departs 3:46 PM CT · arrives 4:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip1.10 in

PHX (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2495 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?