Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2524 LANDED 7:49 AM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 2524 · RDU → DCA

took off 6:59 AM ET · landed 7:49 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2524 · RDU → DCA

Odds over time