AA 2584 · SRQ → DCA

took off 1:20 PM ET · landed 3:33 PM ET (scheduled 12:07 PM ET → 2:42 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 1.7 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip4.49 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2584 · SRQ → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?