AA 2615 · MSY → CLT

took off 5:58 PM CT · landed 8:28 PM ET (scheduled 5:52 PM CT → 9:01 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to CLT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from MSY are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2615 · MSY → CLT

Odds over time

How late did it get to CLT?