AA 2836 · LGA → FLL

took off 4:33 PM ET · landed 7:06 PM ET (scheduled 3:48 PM ET → 6:54 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to FLL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2836 · LGA → FLL

Odds over time

How late did it get to FLL?