AA 2836 · LGA → FLL

departs 3:54 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip1.37 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2836 · LGA → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?