AA 2884 · PWM → DCA

departs 5:59 AM ET · arrives 8:03 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,889 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2884 · PWM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?