Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3171 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 3171 · SNA → PHX

departs 1:24 PM PT · arrives 2:50 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3171 · SNA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?