Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3198 LANDED 6:53 AM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 3198 · AMA → DFW

took off 6:07 AM CT · landed 6:53 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at AMA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from AMA are usually not late

Weather at each end

AMA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.76 in

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3198 · AMA → DFW

Odds over time