AA 3198 · AMA → DFW

departs 5:55 AM CT · arrives 7:17 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
18%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.0 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from AMA are usually not late

Weather at each end

AMA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.98 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3198 · AMA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?