Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3205 LANDED 11:14 AM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 3205 · MIA → JFK

took off 8:25 AM ET · landed 11:14 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.25 in

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3205 · MIA → JFK

Odds over time