Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3246 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 3246 · JFK → JAC

departs 9:59 AM ET · arrives 1:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at JAC more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JAC?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAC

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3246 · JFK → JAC

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAC?