Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3295 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

AA 3295 · PHL → SFO

took off 4:18 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 3:36 PM ET → 6:38 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3295 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?