Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 357 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:54 PM MT, ETA 10:59 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 357 · PHX → PHL

took off 3:54 PM MT · expected to land 10:59 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 357 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time