Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 508 LANDED 7:25 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 508 · LGA → TPA

took off 4:59 PM ET · landed 7:25 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±1 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.99 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 508 · LGA → TPA

Odds over time