AA 508 · LGA → TPA

departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 7:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 508 · LGA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?