Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 525 LANDED 9:18 AM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 525 · MIA → JFK

took off 6:44 AM ET · landed 9:18 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MIA are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 525 · MIA → JFK

Odds over time