AA 574 · DFW → BUF

departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 10:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

BUF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 574 · DFW → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?