AA 584 · TUS → DFW

departs 3:57 PM MT · arrives 8:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

TUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

DFW (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 584 · TUS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?