Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 651 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 651 · DFW → SMF

took off 7:31 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:43 PM CT → 6:20 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
17%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 651 · DFW → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?