Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 653 LANDED 6:59 AM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 653 · TPA → CLT

took off 5:44 AM ET · landed 6:59 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from TPA are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.14 in

CLT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 653 · TPA → CLT

Odds over time