AA 864 · CLT → PHL

departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 6:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,420 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 864 · CLT → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?