Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 890 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 890 · PHX → STL

took off 3:46 PM MT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 3:17 PM MT → 8:23 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 890 · PHX → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?