AA 974 · DCA → BDL

departs 10:21 PM ET · arrives 11:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BDL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BDL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 974 · DCA → BDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BDL?