Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9751 LANDED 9:20 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

AA 9751 · FWA → DCA

took off 8:13 AM ET · landed 9:20 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FWA

Weather at each end

FWA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9751 · FWA → DCA

Odds over time