Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9831 LANDED 4:47 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

AA 9831 · CLT → FWA

took off · landed 4:47 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

FWA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9831 · CLT → FWA

Odds over time