AS 1032 · HNL → ITO

departs 10:01 AM HT · arrives 10:55 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ITO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ ITO is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into ITO at that hour are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.38 in

ITO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1032 · HNL → ITO

Odds over time

How late will it get to ITO?