AS 1114 · LIH → HNL

departs 4:12 PM HT · arrives 4:49 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1114 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?