Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1114 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1114 · LIH → HNL

departs 4:12 PM HT · arrives 4:49 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.67 in

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1114 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?