AS 1120 · LIH → KOA

departs 5:02 PM HT · arrives 5:55 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.9 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.89 in

KOA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1120 · LIH → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?